Bank of Canada Watch A final 25 bp hike The easing of core inflation pressures in May and the decline in inflation expectations means the case for another interest rate hike is not as strong as it seemed a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, with... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.0 in June, from 46.9, is difficult to square with claims from some commentators that economic growth is rebounding and provides further reason to... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumption and core inflation losing momentum The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last. 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr.) The stagnation in GDP in April was weaker than expected but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a sharp rise in GDP in May, quarterly growth should still be a touch higher than the Bank of... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (May) The May income & spending data appear to confirm that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, while also providing encouraging signs that core inflation is gradually easing. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
