US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2023) Total returns were negative again in Q2 at -2.0% q/q. This was dragged down by the office sector, where values fell by 7% and quarterly returns were -5.8%, with all other sectors outperforming the all... 26th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Rising disability not a drag on labour supply The sharp rise in the share of the population with a disability may reflect the legacy of the pandemic. But with the rise in disability rates doing little to keep people out of work, it isn’t... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May.) House prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in May according to Case-Shiller. The resurgence in prices has coincided with an uptick in home sales from February to May, in turn driven by a... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back; disinflation points to sterling peak The US dollar has rebounded over the past two days and looks set to unwind much of last week’s fall. With US data somewhat mixed, much of this rebound in the greenback seems to have been driven by a... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation back at 2.0%, at least by one measure Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June and, excluding mortgage interest costs, was in line with the 2.0% target. While the Bank’s preferred core measures are still higher, the weakness of retail... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to pivot in H1 next year The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update The US yield curve could stay inverted for a while yet The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for a long time by past standards, but we think it could remain so until next year even if there’s a recession in the interim. 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The US stock market’s been flying high, but has it earned it? As the second quarter US reporting season gets into full swing, it’s easy to lose sight of the big picture: the peak-to-trough drawdown in earnings per share (EPS) from last year has not only been... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged lower, dropping by 3.3% m/m to 4,160,000 annualised in June. That decline takes sales back towards the low of 4.0m recorded in January. And despite a marginal pickup in... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family starts fell back from their 11-month high in June, but remained substantially above the average seen in 2023 thus far as homebuilders remained optimistic. However with mortgage rates... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our US Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We still think the economy is more likely than not to fall into a mild recession later this year, as... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: The Fed and ECB’s July meetings – and a lookahead to the BoE 1690466400 Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks deci
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The pick-up in existing home sales this year has spread to the pre-construction market, with new home sales in Toronto rebounding strongly. Together with the surge in housing starts in June, that... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
