Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound, and competitiveness The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today means that, in real trade-weighted terms, it is at its lowest level since the 2016 devaluation. The experience from that period is that the boost to Egypt’s... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. With the pound having weakened even further since the turn of the year... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fears EGP fall will trigger sovereign debt crisis overdone The latest fall in the Egyptian pound sends a strong signal that the authorities are committed to the shift to a more flexible exchange rate. And while the weaker currency poses a threat to the... 5th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound fall a sign that officials are on right path The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today, coming in the wake of last week’s move to ease FX restrictions, suggests that the authorities are starting to make good on their pledge to shift to a more... 4th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation and further... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. African IMF deals, Saudi Budget, China-Saudi relations The IMF Executive Board is set to approve Egypt’s deal next week, but it’s notable that Tunisia staff-level agreement doesn’t seem to be on the Board’s agenda and the uncertainty will add to threat of... 8th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its fastest pace in five years. The headline rate only is set to only climb higher and the Central Bank of Egypt... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of 16.2% y/y in October (consensus 15.6% y/y, CE 15.8% y/y) lends support to our view that policymakers... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
