Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Central banks under the spotlight Next week’s MPC meeting in Egypt, coming at a time of soaring inflation and growing concerns over the commitment to policy reforms, will prove critical to restoring investors’ faith. Policymakers will... 23rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Egypt policymaking, Tunisia-World Bank Tensions within OPEC+ over oil policy appear to be escalating amid rumours that the UAE is, once again, thinking about leaving the group. Ultimately, we think the Gulf states will ramp up oil output... 9th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to 31.9% y/y in February, leaving it just shy of an all-time high and reinforcing our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will need to resume its... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s drought, Egypt’s dollar sukuk The effects of another severe drought in Morocco have weighed on growth, pushed up inflation and fuelled pockets of unrest. Supermarkets in Europe have felt the impact too, with many reporting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its fastest pace since November 2017, on the back of the recent large falls in the pound. This adds to our... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts, Egypt and the dollar, education reform OPEC+ is set to continue with its existing oil output quotas next week, although this means that oil sectors will act as a drag on the Gulf economies over the early part of 2023. Elsewhere, Egypt is... 26th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi and the “petroyuan”, investors like EGP fall Comments by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister that the Kingdom could conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar will add fuel to the debate about the rise of a “petroyuan”. There are hurdles to... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will falls in the pound trigger a public debt crisis? The recent falls in the Egyptian pound pose a threat to Egypt’s fragile public debt dynamics but we think that the government will be able to muddle through. The key risk is that the government shifts... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
