Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Activity set to weaken as headwinds mount Many EMs have started the year on a solid footing, but challenging months lie ahead. While high inflation is likely to weigh on consumption, spillovers from lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of exports softening, new governor at the BoK There are growing signs that demand for the region’s exports are starting to soften. Weaker external demand will add to the headwinds facing the region’s economies, which are already being hit by the... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten gradually Bank Indonesia left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the relatively benign outlook for inflation means the tightening cycle is likely to be very gradual. 19th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka? Recent tumultuous events in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should eventually pave the way for IMF deals in both countries, which over time may lead to the return of economic stability. However, this is by no... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK resumes tightening cycle, more hikes to come. Today’s decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% is unlikely to mark the end of its tightening cycle given the strength of inflationary pressures. We expect at... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightening and strong economy will support SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy again at its meeting today. With growth set to remain strong and core inflation likely to stay elevated, we expect the MAS to... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka suspends debt payments, pushes for IMF deal Sri Lanka’s decision today to suspend payments to bond holders is designed to pave the way for a deal with the IMF and an orderly rescheduling of its debts. The diverse array of creditors to Sri Lanka... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: major challenges await new PM The main challenge facing Shehbaz Sharif, who today replaced Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan, is stabilising the economy. The key to achieving this is a deal with the IMF. The price for any... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
