Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The Philippines economy beat expectations again in Q1 and should have gained further momentum in recent months. But we suspect the strength of the recovery will begin to wane soon. China Drop-In (12... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia will go slow following early hike Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its main policy rate earlier than many had expected today, but given low inflation and a continued need to support the recovery, we still think that the tightening... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: five questions and answers on the crisis The resignation yesterday of the prime minister, the postponement of talks with the IMF, surging inflation and the collapse of the currency are just some of the many problems facing Sri Lanka. In this... 10th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: What to expect from Bongbong Marcos Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is eager to resume the “Build Build Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor and pursue closer ties with China. Extra spending on infrastructure would be... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Growth slowed in Q1 as Omicron held back the recovery at the start of the quarter. Activity is rebounding now that the economy has reopened, but other headwinds are growing. China Drop-In (12 th May... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election Despite the sharp jump in inflation in the Philippines last month, the central bank looks set to raise interest rates only gradually. Meanwhile, the key event of the coming week is the presidential... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Not just Indonesia export ban boosting palm oil prices We expect Indonesia’s latest ban on palm oil exports to be short-lived, but constrained supply and the high prices of other edible oils, coupled with elevated oil prices, will support the price of... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM export strength starting to fade Having surged over the past two years, there are signs that EM exports may now have passed their peak. That will weigh on economic growth, particularly in parts of Asia. EM Drop-In (5 th May, 10:00... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia palm oil ban Indonesia has caused turmoil in global commodity markets over the past week with its decision to ban exports of palm oil. However, given the importance of the sector to Indonesia’s economy and the... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1, provisional) A further pickup in exports drove continued strong Taiwanese GDP growth in Q1, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters as the external sector weakens and COVID-19 weighs on... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) A rebound is already underway following the economic hit from Omicron, which today’s provisional Q1 GDP figures show was relatively mild. But, after an initial pick up in Q2, we expect the recovery to... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
