Asia Economics Update Strong Asian export data, but will it last? Taiwan new export orders picked up again in February, but we don’t expect this strength to continue as high oil prices start to weigh on consumer spending around the world. Meanwhile, the risks to... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan hikes rates, but further tightening to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today unexpectedly raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 1.375%, but we doubt this is the start of an aggressive tightening cycle given the mounting downside risks to growth... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation and strong performance of the rupiah mean the tightening cycle is likely to be very... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation now the biggest concern for the BoK Concerns about inflation in Korea are rising, just as those about financial stability risks are starting to recede. Despite the worsening growth outlook caused by the surge in energy prices and war in... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New GDP growth forecasts We are cutting our GDP growth forecasts for many parts of emerging Asia in response to the surge in global energy prices and the war in Ukraine. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: new president a clear break from Moon Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in yesterday’s presidential election should lead to a shift away from the bigger, and more active state that began under President Moon. But the lack of a parliamentary... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update More hikes in Sri Lanka unlikely to prevent default With inflation surging, the currency coming under downward pressure and the country on the verge of a sovereign default, today’s 100bp rate hike in Sri Lanka won’t be the last in the current cycle... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update War in Ukraine raises EM inflation risks The rise in commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine will push up EM inflation and there are further upside risks from weakening currencies and potential supply chain disruptions. In terms of the... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Presidential election a watershed moment for Korea Korea’s presidential election on 9 th March will have major implications for the country’s economic future. A pledge by the ruling DPK’s candidate to introduce a universal basic income could bring... 3rd March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Malaysia this year remain unlikely Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate on hold and the dovish tone of its statement supports our non-consensus view that rates will remain on hold throughout 2022. We think the... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
