Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025) Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Financial markets update - How Trump and AI are shaping the 2025 outlook 4th February 2025, 3:00AM GMT We’re only a month in and it’s already been an eventful 2025 for financial markets.
RBI Watch RBI Watch: New governor, new direction for monetary policy The announcement of large liquidity injections into the banking sector demonstrates how the priorities of the RBI – led by new Governor Sanjay Malhotra – have shifted from containing inflation to... 29th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing... 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Official data underplays China’s 2024 weakness Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity picked up in December, but that was only enough to drive a modest uptick over Q4 as a whole. The CAP indicates that the economy grew by just 4.4% in... 28th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Iron ore to suffer from China’s property weakness Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: the new sick man of Asia Thailand’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has not only been much weaker than that experienced in other parts of Asia, but also compared with past crises. The weakness of the economy is the key... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold over the coming years Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector, would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China ramping up use of export controls China's latest expansion of export controls didn't come out of the blue. Its government started to build an institutional and legal framework to enable China to leverage its position in key supply... 27th January 2025 (Updated 24th October 2025) · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2025) The Caixin services and composite PMIs released today add to growing evidence that China's economy lost momentum last month. The breakdown shows that the employment index of the Caixin composite PMI... 27th January 2025 (Updated 3rd February 2025) · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: How vulnerable is Korea to a second Trump presidency? Our assumption is that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all US imports (including on Korea), most likely sometime in the second quarter. On its own this would not have a huge impact on Korea, since a... 24th January 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
