Asia Economics Update India starts fiscal consolidation, higher rates will be next Q4 GDP growth published today came in far weaker than expected but the slowdown will be short. Today’s FY10-11 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit, which is good news. Private sector spending is... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Well placed to face the challenges ahead (Feb 10) The emerging Asia upswing has picked up speed and inflation has increased. More central banks have indicated that monetary policy needs to be tightened and, over the next month, we expect rates to... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia jumps the queue and should hike next week Today was Malaysia’s turn to report Q4 GDP growth far stronger than the consensus and even our more-bullish-than-most expectations. All the positives will probably stay in place in coming quarters and... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget targets productivity growth The 2010 budget, published today, focused on structural reforms to enhance the already-high flexibility of Singapore’s economy. Global and regional conditions will become more challenging during the... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s recovery will be impressive in coming quarters Today’s Thai Q4 GDP data were stronger than our above-consensus forecast, with growth being led by government spending and household consumption. We expect that GDP growth will stay high for a few... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s growth surge won’t last Taiwan’s growth looks likely to far outpace expectations in 2010, but economic activity will not feel so healthy on the ground. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Upswings to stay impressive for a while (Q1 10) The trade-dependent economies will eventually see slower GDP growth later this year and in 2011 as the global upswing loses momentum. But Asia’s rebound will not come to a complete halt and growth, by... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in January wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy interest rates at the next monetary policy review in April. The chance of an... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korea hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. Political pressures to hold off monetary tightening have intensified and we now expect the first increase to be delayed until... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right move Vietnam today devalued its currency by 3%. Only the timing of the move was a surprise. The devaluation is necessary and reduces the risk of a disorderly currency decline. Nevertheless, more... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s impressive upswing to stay on track Indonesia’s Q4 GDP growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y and all the key indicators point to a further pickup in coming quarters, with domestic demand leading the way. Monetary tightening is imminent, which... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How big a threat is New Zealand’s negative savings rate? New Zealand’s household savings rate has been negative since the early 1990s and has now widened to around 14% of disposable income. The gap between spending and income should narrow over the next few... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia set to stay on hold for longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and kept its neutral bias. The economic upswing should continue while annual inflation will probably stay below the 6% ceiling. We... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs point to a strong first half January’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) signal that Asia’s exports and industrial output will continue to perform well in the coming months. But price pressures are rising too... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left policy rates unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold this year, before rising in 2011. The economy should... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine rate hike draws closer The Philippine central bank (BSP) today left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0%, as expected, but also began to unwind some of the liquidity support put in place during the global crisis. We still... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
