Asia Economics Focus New Zealand facing a long hard slog New Zealand’s economy is likely to struggle over the medium term after an initial strong bounce next year. We see its GDP growth being closer to the long drawn out recoveries we expect in the US and... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s impressive upswing to stay on track Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% y/y and all the key indicators point to a further pick up in coming quarters, with domestic demand leading the way. We are very positive on the outlook... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise still some way off Today the Philippine central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. Damage from recent storms has made the near term outlook more uncertain. But we still... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What should we make of India’s gold purchases? The news that the Reserve Bank of India has bought gold from the IMF has been interpreted as very bullish for gold prices and bearish for the dollar. Neither is necessarily true: holdings of US... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia stays on hold but rate hikes still close Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected. The neutral bias was retained too, probably with the aim of trying to curb rupiah appreciation. Rupiah strength is relevant to the... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to keep rising near term but pause mid-2010 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.50% today, as expected. We still expect another hike in December but this is now not much firmer than a 50:50 call. The bigger picture is... 3rd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean economy still strong in early Q4 October data released over the last few days show that Korea’s economy retained much of its momentum going into Q4. Capacity use is back at pre-crisis levels and house prices are still rising. The... 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September data confirm acceleration in Thai GDP The recovery in the Thai economy gathered momentum in the third quarter, boosted by investment and household consumption. While growth is likely to stay strong in the final quarter and over 2010 we... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBNZ in no rush to hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. More surprisingly, the RBNZ also remained committed to keeping rates low into the second half of 2010, an... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam rate hikes inevitable and should be aggressive Vietnam’s central bank today confirmed that its key base rate will be left unchanged for the rest of 2009. But rate hikes look necessary from early 2010 and the policy tightening next year is likely... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for the slow lane Bank Negara, as expected, kept policy rates unchanged today and will likely keep rates low for a long time. Malaysia’s upswing is less established and inflation pressures are low, especially when... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India will hike soon India’s Reserve Bank (RBI) kept its key policy rates unchanged today, but also put the markets on notice to expect monetary tightening soon. Worries about the recovery are diminishing fast and the RBI... 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s strong recovery points to November policy rate hike Korea’s Q3 GDP, published overnight, surprised on the upside yet again. The economy is unlikely to grow so strongly in coming quarters but continued recovery is not in doubt. The Bank of Korea’s... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia plans slow exit from fiscal stimulus Today’s 2010 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit but Malaysia’s move to the exit will be more of a stroll than a sprint. Lower personal tax rates and higher relief on incomes will support household... 23rd October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Other countries soon to follow Australia and lift rates (Oct 09) Economic upswings across the region have remained strong and, although inflation pressures remain generally low, asset price concerns are climbing and the need to keep policy rates at super-loose... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay in the slow lane The Bank of Thailand left policy interest rates on hold at 1.25% today, as was widely expected. Although the economic recovery is gaining some traction, there is little risk that inflation will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
