Asia Economics Update Korea and New Zealand central banks too sanguine The government in Vietnam has moved to restructure some of the country’s banks. This comes after a surge in lending in recent years, which has contributed to a rise in bad debt. The non-performing... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia to come down further next year After cutting interest rates by a cumulative 75bp at its last two meetings, Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key reference rate on hold today, as expected. However, with inflation continuing to fall and... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to cut again in February The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25bp to 4.25% today. We see global growth slowing to a below-trend pace in 2012, which in turn should bring more policy loosening in... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's central bank risks losing its credibility The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) is coming under pressure from the government to cut interest rates amid signs of slowing economic growth. However, with inflation at just under 20% y/y in November... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies to remain undervalued Most Asian currencies looked weak even before the falls of the past few months. We expect them to fall further over the coming year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies. And even when global risk... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for Asian markets? Following changes to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up, we have revised down our forecasts for emerging Asia’s currency and equity markets for next year. However, we see both... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs support case for policy loosening Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) released today for India, Korea, Taiwan and Australia confirm that manufacturing in these countries is weak. With fears for growth rising and inflation trending... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% today in a bid to lift confidence and activity following recent floods. The economy is almost certain to contract in Q4 and weak... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian economy slows, but worse is yet to come GDP figures released today confirm that India’s economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year, even before the latest drop in business surveys and exports. With tight monetary policy... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak Philippines’ growth opens the door to rate cuts The Philippines reported weak Q3 GDP data today on the back of a slump in exports. Growth is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The poor state of the economy means the central bank is... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How well will domestic demand hold up? Hopes that Asia had de-coupled from the rest of the world were dashed during the 2008-09 global crisis, as domestic demand fell almost as sharply as exports. However, there are good reasons to expect... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble? Although Asia as a whole is not experiencing a property price bubble, we believe that prices in Hong Kong and Taipei are now in bubble territory. There is a growing risk of a sharp correction in these... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indian rupee? The fall in the rupee is mainly a result of global factors and is likely to be reversed when global sentiment improves. However, with the euro crisis set to drag on, that may be several months away. 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand set to loosen monetary policy Thailand’s Q3 GDP data show that the economy was struggling even before the flood situation worsened in late October. With activity weak, confidence flagging and fears for the global economy... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad is Vietnam’s fiscal position? Vietnam’s fiscal position has deteriorated in recent years. Debt levels would be even higher if contingent liabilities of the banking sector and state-owned enterprises are included. The biggest risk... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
