Asia Economics Weekly India's growth to regain traction by year-end India’s Q2 GDP data will be released on Tuesday and are likely to show that growth slowed. We forecast growth of 7.5% y/y in Q2, down from 7.8% in Q1. Monthly output data suggest that the slowdown... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Supply-chain disruptions temporarily hit growth Q2 GDP figures reported so far within emerging Asia have tended to be weak, with some analysts suggesting that sluggish growth in the US and euro-zone have stalled growth in Asia. This seems premature... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s inflation to bring more policy tightening August price data highlight growing concerns over the stubbornly-high rate of inflation in Vietnam. Despite the backdrop of a weak global economy, we believe that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand's tightening cycle to end this year In spite of growing downside risks to global growth, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 3.5% today. The BoT’s decision-making is being heavily influenced by the outlook for... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad was Q2 GDP in Thailand and elsewhere? Thailand is the latest country within emerging Asia to have reported weak GDP data for the second quarter. Nonetheless, worries that slower growth in the West has already stalled growth in Asia look... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand's central bank faces a policy dilemma The Bank of Thailand announces its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Policymaking has been complicated by global worries intensifying at a time when local fiscal policy looks set to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s central bank to keep rates on hold until 2012 The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept interest rates on hold today, as expected. Although headline inflation crept up slightly in July, the central bank remains confident that inflation will start... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia's growth to be supported by domestic demand Malaysia’s economy grew at a slower pace in Q2 than it did in Q1. Although downside risks for exports have increased, domestic demand should continue to support growth in coming quarters. The upshot... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India's policy tightening set to continue India’s latest wholesale price data show that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Meanwhile, we believe that a hard landing for the economy is unlikely. The upshot is that, in spite of the... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese imports from Asia have cooled At the time of the earthquake in Japan in March, many governments in the region feared the potential impact on their economies. However, although Taiwan and the Philippines saw demand for their... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Singapore's negative interest rates? Singapore’s short-term swap offer rates (SOR) turned negative last week, prompting questions as to whether this amounts to an implicit policy easing. We think not. The negative short-term SOR is... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia would benefit from a further fall in oil prices Oil prices have slipped back on fears that the world economy may be heading for another downturn. What’s more, our in-house view is that oil prices have further to fall. The impact in emerging Asia of... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank in wait-and-see mode The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Volatility in the financial markets and concerns over the outlook for the global economy are likely to keep the BoK on the... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly would Asia recover from another global downturn? Fear is growing in Asia over the outlook for the global economy. Although not our forecast, another sharp fall in global output would see Asia hit hard initially. However, as in 2009, Asia’s strong... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia extends pause amid market jitters Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate on hold at 6.75% today, as expected. Declining headline inflation and greater uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy were the main factors... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
