Asia Economics Update No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018 Despite January’s jump in inflation, the Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates on hold at its first meeting of the year. While most analysts think that BSP will be forced to tighten policy this... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM governments and the great bond sell-off EM governments with the largest financing needs are, in theory at least, most vulnerable to a global spike in bond yields. This includes Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and India. However, it’s worth... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter to 5.2%, from 5.1%, but we doubt the recovery has further to run. While the consensus is expecting growth to accelerate gradually over the... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain Credit growth has continued to slow in some of the countries, namely Thailand and Malaysia, we had previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. However, risks... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit dipped in January but nonetheless remains consistent with solid rates of output growth in most regions. The dip in the headline figure was driven by a fall back... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for January suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors gained momentum at the start of 2018. Encouragingly, the headline readings for Taiwan and Korea – the two economies where... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Equities and currencies make strong start to 2018 Asian equities and currencies have had a strong start to 2018, but we doubt that their recent performance will be sustained. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate hikes to be the exception rather than the norm Malaysia and Pakistan have both hiked interest rates over the past week, and while the consensus and financial markets are expecting most other central banks in the region to tighten policy in 2018... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4 Our estimates for aggregate EM GDP growth suggest it hit a five-year high over 2017 as a whole, but there are signs that growth slowed in the final quarter of last year. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to drift higher EM inflation remained steady in the final few months of last year, but we think it will drift up over the course of 2018. Higher oil prices will feed through into higher EM fuel inflation over the... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: more rate hikes unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) raised its key policy rate by 25bps to 3.25% today, but with growth set to slow, inflation benign and the currency continuing to strengthen, we suspect this will be a... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
