Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4) While Korea’s economy cooled at the end of 2017, we expect growth to regain some momentum in the coming quarters, supported by a turnaround in the tourism sector. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, Trump and trade: the path ahead The trade protection measures that have so far been announced by the Trump administration are fairly small in scope and will not have much of a bearing on the outlook for EM exports. However, we’ve... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members The agreement to press ahead with the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a decent boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia, but it... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do US tariffs mean for Asia? US tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines are likely to cause some short-term disruption in parts of the region, most notably Malaysia, Korea and Vietnam. However, the overall impact... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines’ economy cooled off a bit in Q4, with growth easing to 6.6% y/y. We expect the economy will slow further this year, weighed upon by moderating export growth and sluggish investment. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update As good as it gets for EM currencies EM currencies have strengthened at the start of 2018 and our synthetic EM exchange rate index has jumped to an 18-month high, but we don’t expect the rally to continue. Indeed, we think most EM... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data EM financial markets have made a flying start to 2018, with most equity markets up by 4-6% since the start of the year and most currencies up by 2-3% against the US dollar. However, the incoming... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea set for strong 2018, but not because of the Olympics The 2018 Winter Olympics, which get under way in South Korea next month, will not provide much of a boost to the country’s economy. But this will not stop South Korea from recording another year of... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Indonesia likely by mid-year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% came as no surprise. Although the central bank’s accompanying statement suggests that further easing is not imminent... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, tightening will be gradual The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and the governor’s accompanying press conference signalled aggressive tightening is not in the pipeline. With the economy set to... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Growth to slow from a five-year high Growth in Emerging Asia reached a five-year high in 2017 but we think that it has now peaked and will slow gradually over the next couple of years. The main headwind will come from the export sector... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick thoughts on the recent jump in oil prices The economic gains from the recent rise in oil prices are concentrated among a handful of EMs (mainly in the Gulf) but the losses are spread more widely. That being said, if oil holds onto its recent... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Flying start to 2018 for EM equities not likely to last Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities has hit the ground running again in 2018, we think that the rally will fizzle out before long. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The export rebound is unsustainable Despite the decent outlook for global growth over the next year, we doubt the recent rebound in Asian export volumes will be sustained. If we are right, then regional growth is likely to slow, with... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
