Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, for now The Bank of Korea (BoK) today unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its second straight meeting, and the accompanying statement and governor’s press conference suggest the central... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Further slowdown of EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened at the end of last year and early indicators point to further weakness at the start of 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead With most countries in the region now having reported GDP figures for Q4, we estimate that aggregate growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) came in at 4.4% y/y last quarter. While this... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy lost some momentum in Q4 but still expanded at the fastest pace since 2012 last year. We expect growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, supported by accommodative fiscal... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Surveys point to strong EM export growth in early-2018 Survey-based measures of manufacturers’ export expectations suggest that EM export volume growth is set to strengthen over the coming months. Growth in both EM export volumes and values will, however... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore Budget: Preparing for old age Singapore’s government looks likely to raise taxes in its Budget next week to help fund the costs of its rapidly ageing population. But the country’s strong fiscal position leaves it much better... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to adjust policy The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today was no surprise given the backdrop of an improving economy but very weak price pressures. There was nothing in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed in Q4 after expanding at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q3. We expect the economy to lose a little more steam over the coming quarters against a backdrop of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy cooled at the end of 2017. Less supportive monetary conditions and fiscal policy suggest growth is likely to slow further over the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform? The manufacturing industry in the Philippines has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years. Although the sector should continue to grow strongly in the near term, the medium-term outlook... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
