Asia Economics Weekly What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices will act as a headwind to economic activity across the region, with the drag on growth likely to be biggest in Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. However, with monetary and... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why there’s less to the EM sell-off than meets the eye Warnings that the market turmoil in EMs over the past few weeks could presage a spate of crises similar to the late 1990s look overdone. A more sober assessment reveals three key points. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: July rate hike looks unlikely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, as expected, and there was nothing in the accompanying statement or the governor’s press conference that suggest the BoK will... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q1 GDP showed that the economy started 2018 on a better note than previously thought. However, a gradual slowdown in global growth and a tightening of domestic... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow Indonesia higher? The Philippines, India and Korea are all likely to follow Bank Indonesia by hiking interest rates over the next couple of months. But unlike Indonesia, these three are set to tighten policy from a... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) While today’s figures show that the new government inherits an economy in decent health, the scrapping of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and campaign pledges to review Chinese investment have made... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand in no hurry to hike rates The Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% against a backdrop of solid economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. There was nothing in the... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: At least one more rate cut before year-end After cutting its lending rate just a month ago, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. However, with inflation benign and the economic... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) A pick-up in economic growth in the Philippines in Q1 means that we have raised our forecast for 2018 as a whole from 6.0% to 6.5%. However, this still implies a slowdown in the quarters ahead, as... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s growth eased to 5.1% y/y in Q1, from 5.2%, and we see little prospect of a rebound. With policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain... 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
