Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments The central bank in the Philippines today raised its policy rate by another 25bp (to 2.5%), and signalled that further tightening was likely. However, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today raised interest rates by 12.5bp (to 1.50%) and appeared to indicate that rates would be raised further this year due to concerns about rising inflation. But we think the... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: assessing the impact of the truckers strike A strike by truck drivers in Korea is causing significant disruption. Prolonged industrial action could add to strains on global supply chains and would lower Korean GDP. Even if the strike ends soon... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest EM central bank meetings After months of aggressive interest rate hikes, the end of tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America is creeping closer. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates are likely... 10th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes The BSP and the BoT this week signalled that they are likely to raise interest rates over the coming months. But in both cases we think the pace of tightening will be gradual. 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates set to rise, but tightening to be gradual The Bank of Thailand left interest rates unchanged today, but hawkish comments from the central bank suggest that rates will be raised sooner than we had previously expected. 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt and current account risks are building The effects of the war in Ukraine and strong dollar are causing sovereign debt risks to build in a handful of frontier markets with weak balance sheets, while public debt dynamics in parts of Emerging... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT to stay on the sidelines, Korea inflation concerns Despite above-target inflation, we expect the Bank of Thailand to leave interest rates unchanged, not only at its meeting on Wednesday, but throughout 2022, as it prioritises supporting the economic... 2nd June 2022 · 5 mins read
