Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lift-off for the Bank of Thailand Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic growth in Indonesia remained strong in Q2, but we expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the jump in commodity prices goes into reverse and the boost from reopening... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A brighter outlook for EM local currency bonds We continue to expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) sovereign bonds to rise over the rest of 2022. But we anticipate smaller rises than we did previously, given our... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) GDP in Taiwan contracted last quarter as a surge in COVID-19 cases weighed heavily on consumer-facing sectors and exports slowed. Although consumption should bounce back now that virus cases are... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics EM FX has a bit further to fall; some pockets of greater concern With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several... 26th July 2022 · 4 mins read
