Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for fiscal reform in Mexico The package of tax reforms announced over the weekend by the Mexican government is the most significant in recent history, but will still leave the authorities highly reliant on oil as a source of... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian and Mexican industry trading places The latest manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil suggests that, having been responsible for stronger-than expected GDP growth in Q2, industrial production is likely to weaken again in the second half of... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy to recover from bad year Weak Q2 GDP data was the last thing that Mexican markets needed after the rout of the past few days. That being said, we suspect that Q2 will mark the low point for the economy and that growth will... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Energy reform to support outperformance of Mexican economy The Mexican government’s plan to open up the oil industry to foreign investment could boost annual GDP growth by 0.3%-pts over the next decade and also give a substantial boost to tax receipts. This... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry should still outperform Despite a poor start to the year there are still good reasons to expect Mexican manufacturing to strengthen over the second half of 2013 and support a period of relatively strong growth in the wider... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Little to cheer in June's PMIs There’s not much to cheer in June’s PMI data for Latin America. Brazilian industry appears to be treading water, while the Mexican manufacturing sector is still slowing. Instead, the glimmer of hope... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
