Latin America Economics Focus Mexico could grow at 4% despite sluggish US economy The Mexican economy is unlikely to de-couple from the neighbouring US in an absolute sense over the coming years, but it may at least decouple on a relative basis. Whereas our forecast for US GDP... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are we really on the verge of interest rate cuts in Mexico? The dovish tone of the statement that accompanied last week’s decision by the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold has fuelled speculation that policy could soon be eased. Growth has... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry may not be as strong as the PMI survey suggests We suspect that the record high reading from the Mexican manufacturing PMI in December paints a false picture of strength. Other surveys have been weaker, and the hard data suggest that activity... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of improvement in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Latin American has accelerated in Q4, with a recovery in Brazil offsetting a slowdown in Mexico. However, the Brazilian economy is reaching the limits of... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth picking up, but 2013 set to be a testing year Growth in Latin America has accelerated in the final months of this year. We reckon that regional GDP is on course to expand by just over 3% y/y in Q4, up from less than 2.5% y/y in Q3. This should... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US fiscal cliff unlikely to destabilise Mexican economy Fears about the looming fiscal cliff have caused US businesses and households to defer spending plans, in the process contributing to the recent slowdown in the Mexican economy. But with an abrupt... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Pena Nieto keeps up reform momentum The new President of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto of the PRI, has continued to demonstrate an appetite for the kind of reforms that should help to raise economic activity over the medium-term. We expect... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico: trading places We expect the Mexican economy to outperform by recent standards over the next couple of years. By contrast, growth in Brazil – which until now has been the star performer out of Latin America’s two... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to slow amid global headwinds The economies of Latin America will continue to outperform their peers in the developed world over the coming quarters, but growth is set to slow in 2013 and will be lacklustre by the standards of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico slowing but still likely to outperform Mexico’s economy slowed by more than expected in Q3 and the latest monthly activity data suggest that growth in Q4 is likely to be even weaker. This should end speculation that the central bank might... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican auto sector revving up for stronger exports We estimate that an increase in motor vehicle exports to the US could add around 0.5% to Mexican GDP in each of the next four years. This supports our expectation that the Mexican economy is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
