Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Introducing our House Price Leading Index

Our new House Price Leading Index combines several leading indicators that capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market and suggests that house price growth will continue to...

7th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks

With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC resists CNY appreciation, EU votes on EV tariffs

In a marked shift following a decade of one-sided intervention, the PBOC is now leaning heavily on its daily fixing rate to limit the renminbi's appreciation. We think this is an attempt to maintain...

4th October 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Oil and current account risks, RBI preview

If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks...

4th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Equities Update

Is this time different for China’s stock market?

We’re cautiously optimistic that China’s equity market will hold on to its recent gains, and perhaps even extend upon them in the near term. But we still think its long-run prospects are poor.

4th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Government won’t prevent further rate hikes

The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

China stimulus: your questions answered

China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve...

3rd October 2024 (Updated 12th October 2024) · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Off-budget boost to spending won’t last

The federal budget foresees an unusually large jump in cash outflows that don’t feed into the underlying cash balance in 2024/25. However, the actual boost to activity will be much smaller than the...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

RBI Watch

New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates

Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

Property stimulus: announced measures still fall short

Despite driving a surge in developer stock prices, the property support measures announced so far aren’t that different from previous efforts and are unlikely, on their own, to deliver much better...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday

We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Sep. 24)

The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in...

1st October 2024 · 1 min read