Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs increasingly absorbing China’s surpluses US tariffs appear to have given renewed impetus to Chinese producers’ efforts to export to emerging markets, resulting in a widening trade surplus with the EM world in the first half of the year. But... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: How fast, how low? How Q2 CPI data could dictate RBA rate cuts 30th July 2025, 3:30AM BST The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing.
Asia Rapid Response Thailand: new central bank appointment may raise concerns about central bank independence 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (July 2025) Although the RBA judged that leaving rates on hold was the more prudent choice at its meeting earlier this month, it did signal that there was more easing in the pipeline. Our sense is that the Bank... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some more musings on very long-dated JGBs The result of this weekend’s Upper House election in Japan may not reverse the recent rout at the very long end of the JGB market when it re-opens after a holiday on Monday, given the possibility that... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is Japan’s fiscal situation reaching a breaking point? 23rd July 2025, 9:00AM BST The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face
Climate Economics Update Trade truce lifts China’s green tech exports The US-China trade truce and rebound in US demand helped lift China’s New Three export volumes to a record high in June. Although the strength in green exports is vulnerable to renewed tariff... 21st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for China’s financial markets? While trade and overcapacity related risks remain, we see a bright outlook for China’s equities. But we expect a more challenging path for its bonds and currency over the remainder of the year. 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update LDP election defeat points to looser fiscal policy in Japan With Japan’s ruling coalition losing its majority in the Upper House, fiscal policy may be loosened over the coming months. However, we think that the outlook for monetary policy will be a more... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2025) With underlying price pressures remaining benign, the RBNZ is likely to loosen policy a bit further than most are anticipating. 21st July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Warmer US-China relations, foreigners staying away US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Lessons from the Indonesia and Vietnam trade deals With Indonesia joining Vietnam this week in securing a trade deal with the US, there are some important implications for the rest of the region. One is that the strength of a country’s negotiating... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s legislature could flip behind the president Taiwan’s gridlocked government could secure a legislative majority and freedom to enact its policy goals if recall votes next week go its way. The immediate implications for the economy are limited –... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are fiscal concerns mounting again in Japan? We don’t think worries about Japan’s fiscal position are too severe, and expect the country’s equities and exchange rate, at least, to recover by the end of the year. 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
