Capital Daily

How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year

The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)

China's November credit data show that monetary easing is still struggling to put a floor under borrowing. We doubt that the further rate cuts China’s leadership promised this week will do much to...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Close call for the Bank of Thailand

The coming week sees scheduled central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and Taiwan, but cuts in the rest. The closest...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut

The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February.

13th December 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority

The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike

We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Tankan (Q4 2024)

The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough

The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a...

12th December 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026

The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024)

With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May.

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economic Outlook

India Outlook: A tougher year ahead

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

10th December 2024 · 16 mins read