China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update US tariff rate on China now almost 70% We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia March PMIs, Korea Trade The March PMIs for Asia were generally subdued, supporting our view that GDP growth in the region is set to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back to target in most economies, we... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 25) 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
