Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Nov. 2022) Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that nationwide... 25th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022) November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Threat of widespread lockdowns high and rising The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system. Efforts to contain the current outbreak will, at the very least... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Preparing for reopening will take time Officials have made clear that they are sticking with the zero-COVID policy for now. There are some signs that they are becoming more serious about removing the main roadblocks to reopening –... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen and COVID not to blame for Q3 GDP fall Q3 saw a surprise contraction in GDP that many media outlets blamed on the surge in virus cases and the slide in the yen’s value during the quarter. We think instead that the real culprits were a... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
