Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike policy rate in January Following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, we now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate for the first time in sixteen years in January. The Bank could call time on Yield Curve Control at the... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore rally on borrowed time We think the recent rally in the iron ore price will soon go into reverse. Steel demand in China has surged in recent months, but we think that will prove temporary. China’s steelmakers should cut... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 23) Although job creation rose at a breakneck pace last month, it was matched by an equally forceful expansion of the labour force. And with signs of spare capacity in the labour market starting to... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in August should provide some welcome relief for the RBI. But while we expect inflation to grind lower over the coming months, a severe El Niño and... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily PBOC & BoJ to markets: You shall not pass? Another step up in the Chinese and Japanese authorities’ efforts to prop up their faltering currencies has given the renminbi and the yen a bit of a boost today. Alone, these measures are unlikely to... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) China’s bank loan growth stabilised in August after declining for three consecutive months, and broad credit growth edged up from July’s record low. We think that policy easing could drive a modest... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) CPI exited deflation in August, and PPI rose for the first time in nine months. Core inflation remained unchanged after hitting a 11-month high in July, while services inflation rose to its highest in... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 non-starter, RBI’s speedbumps This weekend’s G20 summit in New Delhi will undoubtedly be presented as a foreign policy triumph by the BJP as next year’s general election creeps onto the horizon. But for all the fanfare in India... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bad news on inflation Headline inflation across Emerging Asia jumped last month due to a rise in food and fuel price inflation. We have raised our inflation forecasts for a number of countries to reflect the deterioration... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Huawei’s chip breakthrough Huawei’s new phone suggests that SMIC, China’s top chipmaker, has succeeded in mass-producing 7nm chips, an important step towards technological self-sufficiency. But it is too early to conclude that... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
