Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Awaiting direction Despite somewhat more encouraging economic data releases, industrial metals prices struggled to find direction in November mainly owing to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade... 5th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still on the sidelines The prices of most industrial commodities traded in a narrow range this week in part owing to stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US and elsewhere. However, the bigger picture is that global... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack October’s price gains a false dawn A cocktail of an apparent softening of US-China trade tensions coupled with several supply outages pushed the prices of most base metals higher in October. Perhaps somewhat unusually, the price of... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals to muddle through in 2020 We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed... 1st November 2019 · 17 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Sep.) Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold, Asian physical demand is likely to... 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trade talk optimism could prove misguided With little in the way of major economic data releases this week, most commodity prices rose on the back of news that the US and China may agree a “mini deal” as part of ongoing trade talks. This... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Watch Palladium to outperform platinum if AMCU strike There is a significant risk that the ongoing wage negotiations between platinum group metals (PGM) producers in South Africa and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) will lead... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Melancholy to persist this year After some fleeting optimism on the back of an apparent easing in US-China trade tensions in September, the recent run of weak US survey data saw demand concerns return to the fore. We think that... 3rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Still too soon to turn positive Oil prices dipped in September despite the attacks on Saudi Aramco. In contrast, the prices of most other commodities increased owing to a rise in investor risk appetite. However, we expect US... 1st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Aug.) Gold imports in China and India remained extremely weak in August. With local currency prices likely to stay elevated, and growth in China set to slow, a turnaround in demand is unlikely anytime soon. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update The gold price rally is over While we are revising up our once-bullish end-2019 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver, we think that the price rally this year has now run its course. Next year, we expect a recovery in bond... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
