Metals Chart Pack Settling in for some near-term weakness December was a relatively strong month for both precious and industrial metals, with prices rising almost across the board. A weaker US dollar and safe-haven buying buoyed gold prices, while base... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Precious Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Awaiting direction Despite somewhat more encouraging economic data releases, industrial metals prices struggled to find direction in November mainly owing to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade... 5th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still on the sidelines The prices of most industrial commodities traded in a narrow range this week in part owing to stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US and elsewhere. However, the bigger picture is that global... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack October’s price gains a false dawn A cocktail of an apparent softening of US-China trade tensions coupled with several supply outages pushed the prices of most base metals higher in October. Perhaps somewhat unusually, the price of... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals to muddle through in 2020 We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed... 1st November 2019 · 17 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Sep.) Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold, Asian physical demand is likely to... 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
