Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean activity data for December confirm that the economy slowed in Q4. Our GDP Tracker suggests the economy grew by a lacklustre 2.0% y/y over Q4 as a whole. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another bumper month (and year) for China’s REE exports In December, China’s rare earth (REE) exports were up by nearly 50% m/m – much higher than the 10% m/m average growth seen since the start of 2012. We believe the sharp increase was partly seasonal... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Solid Chinese metals imports defy negative sentiment December was the fourth consecutive month of strong Chinese metals imports. Although low prices have probably played a role, we think that robust consumption, driven by increased infrastructure... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2015) World Steel Association (WSA) data for December show that global steel output fell in all major producing regions last month. Production was down by 2.8% in 2015 as a whole, with the pace of decline... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to benefit from resilient demand In recent weeks, the focus of has been on the supply of metals and whether producers will cut to rebalance the markets. But in the case of zinc, lower supply almost seems inevitable. As such, it will... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2015) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global output grew by just over 1% y/y in December. Excluding China, output rose by nearly 2% y/y. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium stockpiling scheme just a short-term fix We don’t expect China’s recently-announced aluminium stockpiling scheme to provide prices with anything more than a temporary boost. Indeed, depending on how the scheme is implemented, it could... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s travails are not over yet Although we are broadly positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices in 2016, it is hard to find the upbeat narrative for nickel. Demand is weak and stocks are high. That said , we do expect... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks will not provide much of a cushion in 2016 There were few significant increases in stocks last year, despite reports of oversupply in most metals markets. Indeed, stocks of many metals could be drawn down swiftly if, as we expect, supply falls... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Price of cerium to recover, but won’t be a showstopper Cerium is the most abundant rare earth element (REE) and one of the most widely used. We expect the rise in cerium demand to outweigh increases in supply this year and next, putting some upward... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Poor start gives way to some more encouraging signs The prices of key industrial commodities fell further in the first full week of 2016, led by oil, as China worries resurfaced again. The markets also concluded (rightly, in our view) that the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to stabilise in 2016 After falling below US$40 per tonne late last year, iron ore prices have edged higher more recently. Although we expect global demand to grow only moderately this year, we forecast that prices will be... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How will oil price developments affect copper? The recent slide in the oil price is weighing on the price of copper, in part because it is a reflection of negative investor sentiment towards commodities in general and China’s economy in particular... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A bit of a breather in December The prices of industrial metals recouped a little lost ground in the final month of 2015, but still fell sharply last year. The relative resilience in December probably reflected a number of factors... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
