Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover, but not until next year A combination of weak Chinese demand, destocking in North America and poor economic conditions in Brazil and the CIS is weighing on steel demand this year. At the same time, global output has been... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How long can markets shrug off low stocks? For the most part, LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of September, in some cases to multi-year lows. However, concerns about demand continue to weigh on prices. We expect the low level of... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further evidence that sentiment is bottoming out We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Consensus is moving towards a copper deficit next year Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can tin prices continue to outperform? Tin prices have risen recently, defying the generally negative sentiment towards metals. As we move into 2016, we expect stronger growth in demand to lead to further price gains. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor sentiment deteriorates further Concerns about the scale of the slowdown in China continued to weigh on metals prices in September. The decision by the US Fed to delay the first interest rate rise only provided temporary relief. As... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s rebalancing on demand for commodities The move away from commodity-intensive investment-led growth in China towards a more consumer-driven economy is often cited as sounding the death knell for commodities demand. However, we would argue... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc’s fall from favour should be short-lived An unexpected spike in LME inventories in the last month has raised concerns about oversupply and contributed to a sharp drop in the price of zinc. However, stocks remain historically low and, with... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s carbon trading to curb coal demand further China’s new national carbon cap-and-trade scheme constitutes yet another blow to the prospects for coal demand and prices. In contrast, lower production of steel, aluminium and some petroleum products... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s import data show some areas of strength The latest data on China’s imports and exports do not paint a picture of a slump in domestic demand. But there are nuances, with imports of some metals holding up better than others. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by over 10%y/y in August. But excluding China, output rose by a mere 2% y/y. 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Flagging up the risks to copper mine supply The earthquake that hit Chile yesterday served as a reminder of the vulnerability of the copper market to disrupted mine output from key producing countries. With El Niño underway, persistent strike... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should the Fed’s inaction mean for commodities? Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold yesterday, but the moves have been small. This makes sense, as rates are still likely to rise soon, and the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel prices to rally strongly next year With the market expected to fall into deficit in 2016, as supply falls and demand recovers, the price of nickel should rebound strongly. But the recovery may have to wait until stockpiles are drawn... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
