Commodities Update Glimmers of hope on the demand side There are many factors behind the current weakness of commodity prices, including the overhang of supply from the previous boom, the strength of the US dollar, and poor investor sentiment. But there... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update More supply cuts, but are they enough? China’s metal refiners have been announcing output cuts in 2016. Although Chinese producers have a poor record on curtailing production, we think a combination of reduced raw material supply and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals struggle ahead of first US rate hike US dollar strength and the prospect of rising US interest rates continued to weigh on precious metals prices this week. In contrast, industrial metals prices were volatile, but generally ended the... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How low could iron ore prices fall? Iron ore prices have weakened sharply since September and have recently fallen below $45 per tonne, weighed down by slower demand growth and excessive supply. Given these weak market conditions, we... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Deteriorating supply prospects should lift nickel prices The collapse in the nickel price this year is hard to justify based on fundamentals alone. Ultimately, we expect further constraints on supply, amid steady growth in demand, to boost prices in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will lead continue to outperform zinc? While there has been much media coverage of the recent falls in oil and copper prices, the simultaneous slide in the prices of lead and zinc has not been so well documented. In this Metals & Mining... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE trade data show demand still rising strongly China’s rare earth (REE) trade data show that exports were up 104% in the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier as the removal of export quotas and tariffs continued to... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Any recovery in alumina prices is likely to be limited Alumina prices are strongly influenced by aluminium prices, as demand for aluminium constitutes the bulk of demand for alumina. Since we expect aluminium prices to recover only slowly, alumina prices... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover but not until next year US and Chinese steel prices have continued to fall due to overcapacity and strong exports from China. However, the US government has begun to impose anti-dumping duties and Chinese output should fall... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) World Steel Association (WSA) data for October show that global steel output fell by 3.1% y/y, with declines in most major producing regions. World output has been down y/y in every month this year... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China worries continue to weigh on sentiment Prices of most industrial metals fell sharply this week, largely reflecting persistent investor concerns about the prospects for Chinese demand. The latest data showed LME money managers cutting their... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Outlook for sectoral REE demand is positive The market sectors which consume the most rare earths (REEs) are also the ones where demand is expected to grow the most next year. As such, REE demand should strengthen further next year. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by almost 8% y/y in October. Excluding China, output rose by less than 4% y/y. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Time for Dr. Copper to be struck off? The continued slide in the price of copper has added to concerns about global growth. However, the industrial metal’s track record at diagnosing the health of the world economy has actually been shaky... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower copper price premium may have an upside Given prevailing market conditions, reports that Codelco has cut copper price premiums for 2016 sharply was hardly that surprising. We therefore think the negative market reaction has been overdone... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
