Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jumps in net imports and US production meant that US crude stocks showed a stellar build this week. However, we expect that stocks will fall in the months ahead as refineries come back online. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Shaky fundamentals to derail oil price rally Oil prices saw their strongest quarterly gain in almost ten years in Q1 2019. However, we expect that this recent upturn will begin to subside and that the fundamentals of elevated US supply and... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose this week as the refinery rate ticked down and net imports picked up. We don’t think that this trend will continue as we believe that OPEC exports to the US will continue to fall. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks slumped again. The drivers were an increase in the refinery rate and a huge jump in exports. What’s more, this occurred despite production rising. We expect that as refineries come out of... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply and we expect them to continue to fall in the coming weeks as refineries come out of maintenance. However, higher refinery activity should also start to stabilise gasoline... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Unravelling the shifting dynamics of spreads There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The relationship between oil prices, rigs and output Theoretically, there should be a relationship between the price of oil, the number of oil rigs actively drilling and oil production. However, the relationship appears to have broken down in the past... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to remain low, rates cuts coming Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back sharply in recent months and is likely to remain low over the coming quarters. With growth also set to slow, we expect some central banks to start... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped, largely owing to an increase in net imports. In contrast, product stocks fell, which is partly a seasonal phenomenon but does suggest that US consumer demand is holding up well... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
