Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks in the US rose last week as refinery inputs fell and net imports increased. However, stocks in the WTI storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, dwindled further, causing WTI prices to rise... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update LNG growth to take some heat out of the gas market Growth in LNG exports, particularly from the US, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices in Asia and Europe. However, it will not be enough to return prices to pre-pandemic levels as stocks... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Energy supply is a key risk to our price forecasts Our forecasts for commodity prices this year are subject to greater uncertainty than usual. While we expect growth in energy demand to slow, it may still be the case that supply remains constrained... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC raised oil output in January, but the shortfall relative to target grew even larger. We never expected OPEC to manage to completely unwind its production cuts this year, but there is a growing... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Aramco share sale, Tunisian politics Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that the Kingdom’s medium-term oil policy will include raising output to capture market share and not leave large... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if oil prices remain higher than we expect? Higher oil prices would not provide as large a boost to the Canadian economy as in the past but, at a time when GDP is already set to rise above potential and inflation is well above target, they... 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and product stocks fell last week, reflecting robust US demand. However, we think growth in product demand will slow over the course of this year in tandem with slower growth in the US... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
