Capital Daily Oil-supply disruptions pose a threat to the US stock market History suggests that large disruptions to oil supply, which a proposed ban on imports of Russia’s oil would probably represent, could weigh heavily on the US stock market. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST... 7th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Producers riding oil high? A win for SA public finances Oil prices have surged this week, but Africa’s main oil exporters – Nigeria and Angola – are unlikely to reap the full benefits due to persistent oil output problems and the mounting costs of fuel... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics One week on, how has the war in Ukraine moved the dial? The further escalation of the war in Ukraine this week, which resulted in tighter economic sanctions on Russia and renewed surges in commodity prices, has increased the upside risks to inflation and... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Suez Canal toll hike, Moroccan drought Oil prices have risen even further since yesterday's OPEC+ meeting as investors’ concerns about disruptions to oil supplies from Russia mount. If sanctions are imposed on Russia's energy exports... 3rd March 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial oil stocks fell last week on the back of higher exports, lower imports and greater refinery use of crude oil. Strategic reserves also fell to their lowest since August 2002 and will... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: Some scenarios for the UK economy As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis generates inflation and external risks The key channel through which the crisis in Ukraine will impact India's economy is higher oil prices. If sustained, higher prices would harm real incomes and dampen the economic recovery, which the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
