India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG poses risks for the EU but new supply on its way EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Argentina’s shale poised to rise regardless of elections Argentina’s oil and gas production growth has slowed sharply recently due to pipeline capacity constraints. New projects should ease these bottlenecks, and production should rise from 2024. Admittedly... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly How high can oil prices go? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Weekly Wrap to clients of the Energy Service. It was generally a strong week for commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions have... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Nuclear power still very much in the energy mix After several years in a post-Fukushima wilderness, nuclear power’s ability to provide low-emission and reliable electricity generation has slowly brought it back into favour around the world. Several... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand remains rock solid China imported fewer key commodities in September than in August, but its underlying demand for commodities, especially fossil fuels, remains strong and is only likely to strengthen from here. 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surge in gas prices not yet a major inflation risk Even if it is sustained, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices over the past week would add only around 0.1%-pts to our euro-zone inflation forecast for the coming year and would not require... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How will the Israel-Gaza conflict affect the rest of MENA? The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider Middle East and North Africa. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran were to be pulled into the... 12th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Middle East instability threatens regional LNG exports The conflict between Hamas and Israel will negatively affect Israel’s natural gas exports. However, the bigger concern for global natural gas prices is the risk of the conflict spreading. In view of... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Few commodities spared from this week's sell-off It has been a week of declines for most commodity prices, as commodities were caught up in the more widespread selling of financial assets. Crude oil prices were among the hardest hit, whereas... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Exports will boost US natural gas prices in 2024 Strong production growth has helped to pull US natural gas prices below 2019 levels for most of this year. But prices should rise by the end of 2024 as production growth is set to ease and exports... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
