UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production driven higher by Iraq OPEC production rebounded in November, led by Iraq, which will only add to the glut of oil in the market. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd next year and non-OPEC supply should fall... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks registered their first fall in almost three months last week, despite another jump in net imports and a decrease in refinery runs. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices should recover in 2016, regardless of OPEC Brent’s (short-lived) dip today below $40 per barrel is a further damning verdict on OPEC’s bungled communications after its meeting last Friday. However, it was never likely that the group would... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to recover next year, whatever OPEC targets We, and we suspect many others, are still trying to work out exactly what OPEC decided at Friday’s meeting. Usually reliable sources have reported that OPEC has agreed to raise its output target from... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack High stocks put energy commodity prices under pressure The prices of most energy commodities fell in November as negative sentiment towards commodities in general, high stocks, a warm start to winter in the US and further announcements by China about... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks grew again last week despite strong growth in refinery inputs, as a surge in imports overwhelmed higher demand. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack No reprieve yet for commodities prices The prices of commodities continued to fall in November, pummelled by the strength of the US dollar and persistent concerns about a hard landing in China. While supply-side developments explain the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Stronger economic growth to support oil demand A pick up in global growth over the next few years, especially in major oil consuming countries, should help demand for oil to remain strong rather than tail off. This in turn should support oil... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals struggle ahead of first US rate hike US dollar strength and the prospect of rising US interest rates continued to weigh on precious metals prices this week. In contrast, industrial metals prices were volatile, but generally ended the... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Hopes of Saudi led shift in OPEC policy to be disappointed The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 4 th December, is set to be much more interesting than the one in June. Indonesia will re-join the group for the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price recovery should limit further falls in crop prices The recent weakness of oil prices has weighed on the prices of major agricultural commodities, since oil is an important component of crop production costs and oil prices affect demand for agriculture... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
