ECB Watch ECB unlikely to raise interest rates very far A 25bp rate hike next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, looks nailed on and we suspect that will be followed by another in July. But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation... 4th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big is the fiscal cost of the Iran conflict? Since the outbreak of the Iran war we have increased our forecast for the aggregate euro-zone fiscal deficit this year from around 3% to 3.5% of GDP. Increased borrowing is not a major worry for... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Peace talks, trade and capital flows Talks between the US and Iran have provided a glimmer of hope that global energy markets could begin to normalise. But the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already inflicted heavy... 28th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to... 27th May 2026 · 18 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Inflation pressures, pipelines and railways US President Trump declared this week that he had refrained from restarting strikes on Iran at the behest of the Gulf states in order to give more time for negotiations. But reports that Supreme... 21st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Event Asia Drop-In: What would $150 oil mean for Asian economies and markets? 28th May 2026, 9:00AM BST The risk of a substantial rise in oil prices increases with every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
