Commodities Update

How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output?

Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the...

23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with...

22nd July 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Focus

How the AI race will reshape global energy markets

Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US...

21st July 2025 · 15 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market

New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers

President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Low EU gas storage levels to push prices up this year

European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh...

15th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia?

In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the...

14th July 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs

The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as...

11th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s reform push, OPEC+ decision, Saudi real estate

The delay to Egypt’s IMF review is not too concerning for the country’s balance of payments, but it underscores the difficulty of successfully achieving the goals of the privatisation drive. Elsewhere...

10th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume...

7th July 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running

The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will...

7th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation

We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the...

4th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan

The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think...

27th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil prices fall sharply, platinum to follow suit

The risk premium in oil markets has largely subsided after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leaving bearish fundamentals in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, a surge in speculative activity appears...

27th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Taking stock of the ‘12-Day War'

The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically and, even more quickly, subsided over the past week with the agreement of a ceasefire that has, so far, held. The focus now is on whether Iran pursues...

26th June 2025 · 6 mins read