Commodities Update

Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground

China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of...

Commodities Update

Cocoa prices to stay hot through the holidays

Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to...

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.)

The headline CIPS construction PMI barely changed in November, settling at 45.5 from 45.6 in October, and was still below the 50 “no-change” mark. The sharp fall in the commercial balance was offset...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

OPEC+’s last stand

The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to...

Commodities Update

China’s PMIs may be understating commodity demand

China PMI surveys suggest that the economy flatlined in November, but there was good news for commodity demand with the relative strength in the construction PMI. We suspect that underlying activity...

Capital Daily

We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally

Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US...

Commodities Rapid Response

OPEC+ Meeting: Further cuts, but a price rally is unlikely

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

COP28 and OPEC+, Saudi secures 2030 World Expo

While COP28 is getting underway in Dubai, attention may be drawn instead to events in Vienna today, where OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to reduce its oil production by a further 1mn bpd. This would...

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

OPEC+ won’t let prices slide

Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap

The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Another sour week for oil, precious metals to shine

Gold and silver prices soared this week on renewed optimism that the Fed had hiked to the peak of its monetary policy mountain. We expect prices to rise further when interest rates begin to be cut...

Precious Metals Update

Gold, geopolitics and the Fed

We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t...

Commodities Update

China’s commodity imports holding up

China’s import data for October indicated that its demand for commodities remains robust but we think that further growth in the next couple of months is likely to be modest.

Africa Economics Weekly

AGOA, EU-China influence, MTBPS

Even as African officials push for an extension of a key US-Africa trade agreement, it was announced this week that Uganda will lose duty-free access to the US from next year in response to the...