Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered In this Update, we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this... 28th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Mixed market reaction in Africa to Russia-Ukraine war Elevated commodity prices on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will almost certainly add to inflationary pressures across Sub-Saharan Africa. High prices for energy, metals and agricultural... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis won’t cause euro-zone recession The Ukraine crisis will be a drag on the euro-zone economy due to its effect on trade with Russia and the impact of higher energy prices on household consumption. However, this will be cushioned by... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s banks on the brink The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis. They face both large deposit withdrawals and the prospect of a rise in non-performing loans, which... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis raises inflation and debt risks The Russia-Ukraine crisis will improve the terms of trade of some African oil producers like Angola and Nigeria. But it will add to inflation pressures across the region. And in the meantime, investor... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Reflecting on the week that war began Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week will have significant and far-reaching implications and while reports of talks raise hopes, a halt to fighting does not look imminent. Russia's economy is likely... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of sanctions on Russia The latest Western sanctions on Russia will hit its economy hard through tighter financial conditions and reduced trade, and might plausibly hit GDP by 1-2%-pts. But sanctions stopped short of the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis won’t prevent RBA from tightening The conflict in Ukraine is lifting commodity prices. That will boost inflation in Australia as oil and gas prices rise. And we estimate that a sharp rise in energy prices will actually boost Australia... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
