China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets caught between a rock and a hard place Two unfamiliar and (largely) unrelated fears are stalking financial markets: the prospect of aggressive policy tightening from major central banks, and the apparent risk of a war between Russia and... 14th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in fertility need not slow population growth The sharp drop in the fertility rate during the pandemic has already started to reverse. And even if it is sustained, the government will be able to offset a slower natural increase with higher net... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Regional inflation troubles, Costa Rica votes The recent batch of January inflation data across Latin America made for grim reading and, despite the hawkish response by central banks, inflation rates will remain high until much later this year... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore budget, elections loom in the Philippines The focus of Singapore’s 2022 budget next Friday will be on steps to raise revenues to help deal with a rapidly ageing population, as the government shifts away from supporting the economy through the... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sets its stall out, three more weeks of restrictions The Bank of Japan’s first unlimited fixed rate auction in three-and-a-half years is likely to send a strong signal to investors that +0.25% is right now a clear line in the sand for 10-year JGB yields... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much The full reopening of the border will prompt more Australians to make holidays overseas. The key point though is that it sends a powerful message that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, which... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Aramco share sale, Tunisian politics Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that the Kingdom’s medium-term oil policy will include raising output to capture market share and not leave large... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market Both we and the market are now discounting 100bp of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. And given the sequencing set out by Christine Lagarde, it seems likely that net asset purchases will end in Q3... 8th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy back in recovery mode next month Omicron disruption to supply chains was already holding back industrial production in some sectors in December. And with domestic cases surging since then the recovery will have gone into reverse at... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly E-rupee will have to battle consumer indifference One of the more eye-catching elements of the Union Budget was the pledge that the RBI would introduce a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the upcoming fiscal year. That would make the Reserve... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
