Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus How does South Africa deal with its debt problem? This week’s Budget in South Africa will probably see the government reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. But we think that officials will struggle to stay on this path in the next couple... 22nd February 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the possible impact of sanctions Russia’s decision to send troops to eastern Ukraine has prompted US sanctions on the two breakaway Ukrainian regions, and Western governments are lining up further measures that would hit Russia... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated the headlines again this week and all of our research on the global implications, Ukraine's economy and the rest of the region can be found here. Meanwhile... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor The Omicron hit to activity has been small compared to past waves and should prove short-lived now that cases are falling in all regions. In fact, high-frequency data suggest that activity has already... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Replay of 2017 French election fears unlikely this time French President Macron is on course to win re-election in April by a comfortable margin, and is likely to push for a lower tax burden and pension reform in his second term. His main rival Marine Le... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget 2022 set to remain supportive Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy outlined this week that he thinks fiscal policy should remain loose until interest rates have been normalised to avoid exacerbating financial risks. Add in the... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine boost, surging manufacturing profits Services spending finally showed signs of life last quarter, underlining that the vaccine boost is finally filtering through. Another reason to be confident about the outlook is that consumer price... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF equity transfer, Russia-Ukraine crisis The transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco from the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will not diversify government revenues away from oil as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like to... 17th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update The Ukraine crisis and the euro-zone revisited While the simmering tensions over Ukraine could keep euro-zone inflation higher for longer than most expect, we think that it is unlikely to put the ECB off plans to start normalising policy this year... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
