China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Water strains, Saudi-China relations, CBE meeting Tunisia and Morocco are in the midst of severe droughts that could weigh on activity in the key agricultural and tourism sectors, and could possibly stoke social unrest. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Indonesia, Thai election hots up Long-term prospects for Indonesia’s economy received a boost this week when parliament passed a long-delayed series of reforms that should lift competitiveness. Meanwhile, Thailand’s parliament was... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Generous, but lacking a long-term growth plan The Budget has taken a bit of a backseat given the renewed worries about the health of the global banking system, but the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was a bit more generous than we expected and probably... 15th March 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2023 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key forecasts announced during the Spring Budget at 12.30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 15 th March. Our more detailed preview is here. We will send a Rapid... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Egypt policymaking, Tunisia-World Bank Tensions within OPEC+ over oil policy appear to be escalating amid rumours that the UAE is, once again, thinking about leaving the group. Ultimately, we think the Gulf states will ramp up oil output... 9th March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
