UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of sanctions on Russia The latest Western sanctions on Russia will hit its economy hard through tighter financial conditions and reduced trade, and might plausibly hit GDP by 1-2%-pts. But sanctions stopped short of the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis won’t prevent RBA from tightening The conflict in Ukraine is lifting commodity prices. That will boost inflation in Australia as oil and gas prices rise. And we estimate that a sharp rise in energy prices will actually boost Australia... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fossil fuel reliance, Japanese banks in Russia The recent spike in energy prices has highlighted just how reliant Japan still is on imported energy. Renewable energy production will need to be ramped up significantly to shield the economy from... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets in the fog of war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. While the war is still in its early stages, there are a few observations worth making on the impact on financial markets... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six questions on Ukraine and the euro-zone The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be... 24th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
