Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the implications of Amlo’s recall referendum Mexican President López Obrador is likely to remain in power after a recall referendum on his position this Sunday, which may embolden him to double down on his interventionist agenda. While a radical... 5th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen’s chances of victory are increasing The chances of right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency later this month appear to have risen sharply over the past couple of weeks. A victory for Le Pen would almost... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Flaring political risks a major threat in South Asia A constitutional crisis in Pakistan threatens to scupper its deal with the IMF, which would throw its already-precarious external situation into very dangerous territory. Meanwhile, political meltdown... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q1 GDP data to paint a picture of resilience GDP data released over the next month or so in Emerging Asia are likely to show that recoveries continued everywhere across the region (excluding China) in Q1. That’s despite the fact that almost all... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack War in Ukraine: a varied impact across Africa Spillovers from the war in Ukraine will have a varied impact across Sub-Saharan Africa. Large oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola are benefitting from the surge in global oil prices but, for the... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: what’s at stake? Fidesz is looking the most likely to retain power in Hungary’s election this weekend, which will pave the way for four more years of tensions with the EU over the rule of law and raise the likelihood... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
