Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and fiscal policy moving in tandem Political considerations ahead of key elections in South Africa and Nigeria are likely to add to reasons to loosen fiscal policy over the coming quarters. And while that may support activity in the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: what to watch after the election All eyes will be on Brazil’s general election on Sunday and, in this Weekly, we outline five key things to watch in the immediate aftermath of the vote. 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf... 29th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does MbS’ promotion mean for Saudi Arabia? The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as prime minister yesterday evening cements his role as the head of the government. The crown prince already held significant... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External strains building in North Africa The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italian General Election Right-wing victory not immediate concern, but long-term risks remain The widely-anticipated right-wing coalition victory in Italy’s general election does not pose an immediate risk to bond markets... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor gambles everything on growth The Chancellor claimed that this was a plan for growth. But unless the Chancellor’s gamble pays off and the government’s fiscal policy boosts GDP growth by 0.5-1.0ppts per annum, the risk is that once... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from Italy’s general election With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. In view of the wider interest... 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil’s spending cap survive? The credibility of Brazil’s spending cap – the country’s key fiscal anchor – has been seriously undermined by tweaks and workarounds since the start of the pandemic. And it looks likely that the cap... 21st September 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fuel subsidies, Brazil’s presidential race The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: reforms, not fiscal policy main post-election risk Italy’s right-wing coalition, which looks set to win the upcoming general election, will probably run slightly looser fiscal policy than Draghi’s government, but clashes with the EU similar to those... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Lula: lessons from the past While Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (better known simply as Lula), the front-runner in Brazil’s presidential race, has been vague about his policy stance, one common theme from his campaign is nostalgia... 14th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the government to blame for labour shortages? The public sector has been responsible for almost 90% of the rise in total employment since the pandemic and now accounts for the largest sustained share of employment since the early 1990s. The... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
