Latin America Economics Weekly

BCB to cut, Argentina shifting towards the centre?

The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting made clear that the easing cycle will kick off in August, but they also confirmed our long held view that the easing cycle will be gradual –...

30th June 2023 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fallout from Russia's rebellion, lira's sharp depreciation

The aborted uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia's military last weekend has prompted a forceful response by President Putin as he seeks to reassert his authority. There's much less certainty...

30th June 2023 · 10 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation?

1688652000

Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.

Africa Chart Pack

Risk premia fall back

Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late...

28th June 2023 · 11 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt long-run prospects, Morocco autos, the Hajj

Egypt’s economy is on a path to become the largest in the region by 2050, overtaking Saudi Arabia, but this will hinge on the authorities committing to orthodoxy and undertaking key structural reforms...

28th June 2023 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

Tinubu’s first steps: near-term pain, long-term gain?

The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira are likely to push inflation in Nigeria towards 35% y/y, which will prompt further interest rate hikes by the central bank and weigh on...

27th June 2023 · 11 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s rebellion: bigger war, lower macro stability?

The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group against the Russian military over the weekend has dealt a heavy blow to President Putin and exposed cracks in the regime. There are a...

26th June 2023 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing

The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring...

23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts

The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio...

22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown

Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest...

21st June 2023 · 20 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria

Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key...

21st June 2023 · 3 mins read

Long Run Update

Economic fracturing to continue despite thaw in relations

A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear...

20th June 2023 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Bola goes big, but big enough?

This week’s plunge in the Nigerian naira marked the latest positive step by President Bola Tinubu as he seeks to overhaul the economy, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious that this...

16th June 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan

Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide...

15th June 2023 · 6 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth

Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment...

13th June 2023 · 3 mins read