Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI (Feb.) February’s final PMI survey suggests that the euro-zone economy is still expanding only slowly. And with retail sales falling again in January, the much-needed consumer recovery has yet to materialise... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Bus. Inv. (Q4) & CBI Distributive Trades (Feb.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) & Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The annual growth of Japan’s exports predictably soared in January due to favourable base effects. More revealingly, exports continued their gradual recovery in month-onmonth terms. Today’s upbeat... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & French Consumer Spending (Jan.) The latest data add to the recent run of bad news. With German Ifo business sentiment falling in February and French consumer spending dropping in January, there is little hope that the euro-zone... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The euro-zone composite PMI was unchanged in February, adding to evidence that the economy probably expanded at a fairly lacklustre pace at the start of this year. 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Yanukovich triumphs but Ukrainian markets set for a rough ride Exit polls suggest that Viktor Yanukovich has defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the race to become Ukraine’s next President. But his margin of victory in yesterday’s run-off was slim and the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Just how damaging would a hung parliament be? There are worries that a hung parliament could lead to higher interest rates and a lower credit rating – a nasty scenario for sterling assets. But with monetary policy set to remain extremely loose... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Just how damaging would a hung parliament be? There are worries that a hung parliament could lead to higher interest rates and a lower credit rating – a nasty scenario for sterling assets. But with monetary policy set to remain extremely loose... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales figures suggested that total consumer spending fell in Q4, adding to signs that the overall recovery lost pace. What’s more, January’s final PMI survey pointed to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a “double-dip” sink Mr Brown? Q4’s disappointing GDP figures have raised fresh questions over the possibility of a “double-dip” in the economy and the implications for the timing and outcome of the forthcoming general election. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a “double-dip” sink Mr Brown? Q4’s disappointing GDP figures have raised fresh questions over the possibility of a “double-dip” in the economy and the implications for the timing and outcome of the forthcoming general election. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) & French Consumer Spending (Dec.) January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian elections to spotlight fiscal frailties The very worst fears of a major fiscal blow-out in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections are probably overblown. But given Hungary’s comparatively high level of debt and history of fiscal... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
