Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms a small step in the right direction In a speech to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this morning, President Medvedev unveiled a series of market-friendly reforms including changes to the capital gains tax regime and a... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How many young workers are there? There may be 31 million fewer Chinese aged under 15 than previously thought. If so, the number of young workers will soon be falling rapidly, putting sustained upward pressure on wages. 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal plans fall well short The manifestos for next month’s Upper House elections published today show a worrying lack of urgency or ambition in their commitments to sort out Japan’s dire public finances. In particular, the... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2010 China’s businesses and banks are still confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and wages and reluctant to spend. Mortgage demand is down and few... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink of another political crisis? The Romanian government looks set to scrape through tomorrow’s no-confidence vote, thus averting a fresh political crisis and keeping relations with the IMF on track for now. But with the vote... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Firms shrug off financial markets’ worries Today’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that Japanese companies are much less worried than the markets appear to be about the damage to economic prospects from the crisis in Europe... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New PM makes a good start We have become a bit more positive about the prospects for real progress on Japan’s public finances following the first week of Naoto Kan’s premiership. Nonetheless, the first real test will come at... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan to take the lead from the UK? The appointment of PM Kan’s cabinet has been accompanied by a flurry of tough rhetoric on the need to bring the public finances under control, echoing the shift of emphasis in this weekend’s G20... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMI (May) April’s drop in euro-zone retail sales brought more worrying evidence of the weakness of the consumer sector even before fiscal tightening really kicks in. 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Indebtedness not a big problem for the corporate sector Companies balance sheets are in a broadly healthy state, suggesting that firms can avoid the prolonged period of deleveraging facing other parts of the economy. But there are plenty of other reasons... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Centre-right wins in Czech Republic, tough times lie ahead The recent elections in the Czech Republic appear to have produced a strong centre-right coalition, which will step up efforts at tackling the public deficit. But the looming fiscal squeeze adds to... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Worrying early signs from Hungary’s new government Hungary’s new government has got off to a disappointing start, with early signs suggesting that economic populism will take priority over much-needed fiscal reform. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) The continued rebound of small business confidence in Japan is a good example of the disconnect that sometimes happens between the worries of financial markets and reality on the ground. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What is the outlook for S&P 500 earnings? We expect S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) to increase by nearly 15% this year. While encouraging, such an outcome would come as a disappointment to many investors. According to Bloomberg... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
