UK Economics Update Could a strong pound be a post-election headache? Analysis of the likely behaviour and influence of the exchange rate after the election has tended to focus on the possibility of a further sharp depreciation in the event of a hung parliament. But... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector job cuts could yet take unemployment to 3m The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) In contrast to the position in many other major economies, notably the US, Japan’s relatively broad-based recovery is helping firms of all sizes. Indeed, April's buoyant survey of small business... 27th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates cut again as Fidesz secures two-thirds majority The markets’ favourable reaction to Fidesz’s landslide election victory in Hungary will have been a key factor behind today’s decision by the National Bank (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.25... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are hung parliament fears easing? There are some signs that markets are becoming rather less fearful of the prospect of a hung parliament after the election on May 6th. 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI provides further hope that the recovery is regaining momentum. But with few signs from the hard data that the region’s heavy reliance on external demand... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debate The outcome of the general election on May 6 is unlikely to transform the basic trajectory of the UK economy over the next five years. Whoever gains power will find their economic policy priorities... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three priorities for Ukraine’s new government A series of policy announcements that are due over the next week or so, including a draft 2010 Budget, should give a clearer idea of the priorities of Ukraine’s new government. Reforms in three areas... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks increase again The shocking weekend events in Bangkok could make it more difficult to reach a compromise on the date of new elections, or may bring new urgency to the negotiations. We suspect that new elections will... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fidesz romps to victory, but will inherit fiscal frailties The markets have welcomed Fidesz’s landslide victory in yesterday’s election in Hungary. But with a distinct lack of policy detail from the party so far, we remain only cautiously optimistic that its... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should stay contained Yesterday’s declaration of a state of emergency in Thailand could mark the start of a dangerous escalation in the confrontation between street protestors and the government. But while the stand-off... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response EWS (Mar.) & Machinery Orders (Feb.) The sharp improvement in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in March is further evidence of an increasingly broad-based recovery. This trumps the bad news of a fall in... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Upbeat economic news may not do the job for Mr Brown The news on the UK economy in the approach to the general election now looks likely to be reasonably upbeat. But the key question is whether voters will translate that better news into greater... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Upbeat economic news may not do the job for Mr Brown The news on the UK economy in the approach to the general election now looks likely to be reasonably upbeat. But the key question is whether voters will translate that better news into greater... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final GDP (Q4), Final PMIs (Mar.) & PPI (Feb.) The downward revision to Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures is a reminder of the economy’s fragility. Thankfully, March’s final PMI survey brought further evidence that the recovery resumed in Q1. But the... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK election won’t transform the economic outlook The result of the UK general election could have short-term effects on sterling asset markets, but it won’t transform the economic outlook. Whatever the outcome, the next five years will be... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
