China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would happen if there was a no deal Brexit? We are not forecasting a no deal Brexit on Friday. But Brexit has a tendency to bring the unexpected and a no deal is still the default. What’s more, although it may be low risk, it would be high... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A guide to this week With only four full days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm on Friday 12th April, this week is potentially crucial. Of course, it’s impossible to know with Brexit whether what looks... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia election unlikely to lead to stronger growth Although neither candidate in Indonesia’s presidential election has unveiled policy proposals that are likely to address the long-standing constraints which are holding back growth, another term for... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a general election help or hinder? With Brexit gridlocked, the chances of a general election appear to be rising. Indeed, after the third defeat of her Brexit deal, Theresa May said that “I fear we are reaching the limits of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy The BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Implications of Brexit developments and CGT changes The extension of the Brexit deadline and new capital gains tax (CGT) rules do little to change our view on the UK commercial property market. Indeed, under any Brexit scenario except no deal we still... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament’s Third Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The rejection of May’s Brexit deal by 58 votes means with two weeks and eight hours to go until the UK is due to leave the EU there is still no clear path for Brexit itself, the economy and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish local elections, Russian GDP figures Concerns about Turkey’s economy and financial markets are unlikely to fade even once Sunday’s local elections are out of the way. If anything, we think that they will intensify. Meanwhile, expected... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
