Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The consumer price figures support our view that inflation will probably be back at the 2% target next year. Nonetheless, this is predicated on a Brexit deal being struck. In the event of a “no deal”... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real income recovery to spur spending In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit timer running out The next few weeks of Brexit negotiations will prove critical in determining whether a deal will be wrapped up by Christmas. We would not be surprised if the talks dragged on into the New Year, in... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs weigh on imports, but boost exports A closer look at the trade data for October bolsters our suspicions that firms have been frontloading shipments from China to the US. Meanwhile, President Xi opened this week’s import expo with an... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth slowing again, Brexit backstop bickering We don’t find the apparent slowdown in economic growth at the start of Q4 too worrying. After all, growth was always likely to ease as the boost to the retail sector from hot weather and the football... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s mixed surveys, Mozambique’s debt The raft of survey releases in South Africa this week provided contradictory messages, but on balance we think that conditions continued to improve at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the news that the... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q3) The GDP figures confirmed that economic growth accelerated in Q3. But it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to keep up this pace with Brexit uncertainty hanging over it. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
