Europe Economics Update French riots add to downside risks to outlook Riots over living costs in France have not altered our view that the economy will outperform most of its neighbours in the next two years. But they highlight how difficult it will be for President... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might markets react if the Brexit deal is rejected? Markets are likely to be relatively nonplussed if Parliament narrowly rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal. However, a decisive defeat may elicit significant moves in either direction, depending on... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade ceasefire is no growth panacea, even if it lasts The ceasefire agreed by Trump and Xi will help avert a sharp slowdown in US-China trade at the start of next year. But negotiations toward a lasting deal are likely to be fraught. And broader... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The weak tone of GfK/NOP’s Consumer Confidence Survey in November suggests that Brexit uncertainty is starting to weigh more heavily on confidence, which sets the stage for slightly weaker consumer... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
