Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Unlawful suspension of UK Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court in the UK that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as... 24th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Unlawful suspension of Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as possible... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: protests and the economic impact Protests in Egypt over the past few days have ignited concerns that the country is on the cusp of another period of political upheaval. Past experience suggests that this would be disruptive for the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The drop in machinery orders in July didn’t reverse the jump in June and we still think that business investment rose at a strong pace in Q3. However, a renewed fall after October’s sales tax hike is... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump may not like negative rates in practice President Donald Trump’s call for the Fed to slash interest rates to zero or “less”, so that the Treasury can lock-in low borrowing costs for the very long term, sounds appealing in a sustained low... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Crisis still has potential to spill beyond Hong Kong Yesterday’s announcement by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam that the government will withdraw the controversial extradition bill that sparked the current political crisis has raised hopes that... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Key points on the next general election If Parliament moves to rule out a no deal Brexit this week, a general election seems on the cards either before or after a delay to Brexit. With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, a no-deal Brexit... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch as Parliament returns with a bang The events in Parliament over the next week and a half will be crucial in determining whether Brexit will be delayed beyond 31st October, whether there’s an election or whether there is a big step up... 2nd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
