UK Economics Weekly What will investors unwrap on Thursday night? The gap between the main parties in the polls suggests a Labour-led government is still plausible, but by far the most likely result of Thursday’s general election is a Conservative majority. That... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty to linger after election and Brexit deal While a Conservative election win followed by a Brexit deal would boost the economy, the lingering uncertainty generated by Boris Johnson’s pledge not to extend the transition period beyond 2020 will... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deal may not mean deal While the opinion polls are increasingly suggesting that the Conservatives will win a big enough majority in the election to pass a Brexit deal by 31 st January, the Prime Minister’s plan to defy all... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra drama a setback for reform prospects Developments this week have brought an end to the political gridlock in Maharashtra – India’s largest state by GDP – with the outcome providing a setback to longer-term reform ambitions at the... 29th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Update UK shareholders should worry about a Labour win The Labour Party’s manifesto contains several measures which, if implemented, would have a significant negative effect on UK equites. A surprise Labour win could send UK equities tumbling, despite a... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election 2019: are social housebuilding plans realistic? With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe makes history, supplementary budget, 50-yr JGBs? Shinzo Abe became Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister this week but his track record on the economy is mixed. Meanwhile, the ¥10 trillion supplementary budget that the government are reportedly... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons for the UK from New Zealand’s Labour government The lessons for the UK from the election of a Labour government in New Zealand in 2017 are that businesses and financial markets will probably put more weight on policies that could restrain economic... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s protests: growing risk of longer disruption The sharp fall in the Chilean peso today amid widespread strikes will push up inflation although, with the central bank focused more on the hit to the economy, further interest rate cuts are still... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Sri Lanka after the election GDP growth in Sri Lanka is likely to remain weak whichever of the two main candidates wins the presidential election on Saturday. 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
