Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ policy, Egypt’s orthodox shift and FY22/23 budget Next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting may drop some hints about the future for the group's oil output beyond September and we think that quotas are likely to be lifted. If that’s the case, the Gulf economies... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (May) The larger-than-expected rise in public borrowing in May is an early blow for the government on a day when it is expected to lose two by-elections. What’s more, the combination of a further weakening... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt public finance risks contained… for now Egypt’s public debt dynamics look increasingly fragile due to a combination of the extremely short average maturity of its debt, rapidly rising yields, and a growing share of debt denominated in... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: First thoughts on Petro’s victory Left-wing Gustavo Petro’s win in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election is likely to spook investors and trigger a sell-off in the country’s financial markets. We suspect that Petro will... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Loss of majority curtails Macron’s second term plans French President Emmanuel Macron faces five difficult years after losing his absolute majority in parliament. Proposed reforms, including to pensions and benefits, will be diluted if they happen at... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak Q2 may be a sign of things to come Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the... 15th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
