Africa Economics Weekly Virus restrictions eased, Kenya’s fleeting budget Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa have scaled back COVID-19 restrictions in recent weeks and, despite low vaccination coverage, it seems the virus will be less disruptive to activity going forward... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2022 unlikely to move the needle for the Bank The government announced a smorgasbord of new policies in the 2022 Budget, but the total increase in the budget deficit, at just $7bn, was arguably far lower than some feared. Moreover, as most of the... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2022 could make Bank even more “forceful” The strong activity data released this week raise the odds of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates by a larger 50bp at its meeting later this month, particularly if the government loosens fiscal... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening adds fuel to inflation fire The huge expansion in public spending since the start of the pandemic is a key reason why we expect Australia’s GDP to have surpassed its pre-virus trend at the start of this year despite the drag on... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack War in Ukraine: a varied impact across Africa Spillovers from the war in Ukraine will have a varied impact across Sub-Saharan Africa. Large oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola are benefitting from the surge in global oil prices but, for the... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2022 could exacerbate inflationary pressures The government looks set to use its 2022 budget next week to outline a further increase in spending. While this will be modest in the context of the stimulus provided during the pandemic, it comes at... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fiscal cost of the Ukraine war We estimate that euro-zone governments’ fiscal deficits will be around 1% higher than expected this year, as a result of the war in Ukraine, mostly due to government subsidies for energy, support for... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
